We are Really on the Road to Serfdom, By James Reed

The Townhall column by Les Rubin (March 28, 2026) applies Friedrich Hayek's classic 1944 warning in The Road to Serfdom directly to the contemporary United States. Rubin argues that America is sliding toward "serfdom" — not through sudden revolution, but through the gradual, well-intentioned expansion of government power, central planning, massive deficits, entitlements, and regulatory reach. Prosperity and individual liberty are inseparable, he says, and abandoning limited government for ever-larger state control trades freedom for dependency.

Hayek's core insight was that central economic planning inevitably erodes the rule of law, individual choice, and democracy itself. When government tries to direct resources, prices, and outcomes in the name of "social welfare," it must override personal decisions. This leads to more coercion, the rise of planners who concentrate power, and eventually a society where citizens become dependent subjects rather than free agents. Rubin sees echoes in U.S. federal debt (now around 125% of GDP with endless trillion-dollar deficits), the growth of entitlements since the New Deal and Great Society, and regulatory intrusion into areas once left to individuals, families, and states.

Australia's Faster March Down the Same Road

Australia appears to be moving in a similar direction — arguably faster and with less resistance than the U.S. in several respects. While the U.S. still has stronger constitutional pushback, cultural individualism, and recent political shifts toward restraint, Australia's trends show deeper structural dependency and centralized control.

Key Australian patterns that align with Hayek's warning:

Welfare state expansion and dependency culture: Australia already operates a large welfare system (age pension, JobSeeker, Disability Support Pension, NDIS, family payments). Reports from think tanks like the Centre for Independent Studies have warned of a drift toward a "European-sized welfare state," with growing entitlement mindsets and intergenerational welfare reliance. Government spending growth, public service bloat, and "Leviathan on the rampage" critiques highlight how this drains economic vitality and fosters dependency rather than self-reliance.

Regulatory and bureaucratic reach: Heavy regulation in housing, energy, education, healthcare, and employment (including Fair Work rules and industrial relations) limits individual and business freedom. Attempts at cash transaction limits, digital ID pushes, and banking/Finance sector oversight have sparked "modern serfdom" complaints from critics who see them as tools for greater state monitoring and control.

Fiscal trends: High government spending relative to GDP, persistent deficits in some years, and reliance on mining royalties and taxes to fund social programs create vulnerabilities. Critics argue this crowds out private enterprise and innovation, mirroring Hayek's concern that planning distorts markets and reduces overall prosperity.

Speed factor: Australia's smaller population, unitary tendencies in policy (despite federation), and historically strong social democratic consensus make expansive government programs easier to implement and harder to roll back. Issues like NDIS cost blowouts, housing affordability crises exacerbated by zoning and migration policies, and energy policy (subsidies, mandates, and reliability problems) show how good intentions can lock in dependency and inefficiency.

In Hayekian terms, each new program or regulation seems reasonable on its own ("help the vulnerable," "protect consumers," "fight climate change"), but cumulatively they shift power from individuals to bureaucrats and politicians. The result is a society where more people look to Canberra for solutions, fewer take personal responsibility, and economic dynamism slows. Australia's high taxes on income and companies, combined with generous benefits, can create disincentives to work, save, or innovate — classic symptoms of the "road" Hayek described.

Important Qualifications (Hayek Was Nuanced)

Hayek did not oppose all government roles. He supported a basic safety net for food, shelter, and health to preserve human dignity in wealthy societies — provided it didn't slide into comprehensive planning or destroy incentives. The danger lies in the incremental expansion that undermines the spontaneous order of free markets and individual choice.

Not every social program equals serfdom. Australia's relative prosperity, rule of law, and democratic institutions remain strong compared to truly authoritarian systems. Many Australians value the "fair go" and see government as a partner rather than an oppressor. However, the trends Rubin highlights in the U.S. — debt, dependency, regulatory creep — are visible and accelerating here, often with less vocal classical liberal opposition.

Why This Matters for Australia (and Melbourne, Victoria)

Victoria, like the rest of the country, feels these pressures through cost-of-living strains, energy prices, housing shortages, and welfare reliance in some communities. If government continues growing faster than the economy, the "serf-like" outcome isn't literal feudalism but a subtler loss: fewer genuine opportunities, more red tape, higher taxes funding inefficient programs, and citizens who feel less agency over their lives.

Reversing the road requires cultural and policy shifts: fiscal discipline, simplifying welfare to encourage work, reducing unnecessary regulations, protecting property rights, and restoring the idea that freedom and responsibility go together. Hayek warned that once the state becomes the main provider and planner, rolling it back is politically difficult — the dependent class grows, and vested interests defend the status quo.

Rubin's piece is a timely reminder for America. For Australia, it's arguably even more urgent because the trends have deeper roots and fewer constitutional brakes. The question for both nations remains the same: Will we heed the warning and recommit to limited government and individual freedom, or continue trading liberty for the illusion of security and equality?

If the road continues unchecked, we risk not dramatic tyranny overnight, but a slow compression into a more managed, less dynamic, and less free society — exactly what Hayek feared.

https://townhall.com/columnists/les-rubin/2026/03/28/we-are-on-the-road-to-serfdom-n2673569