The Global Oil and Gas Crisis Has Arrived — And It's Already Emptying Petrol Stations Across Australia, By Tom North
We've only just seen signs that the shooting war with Iran might be winding down through talks, but the damage to global energy supplies is already here — and it's biting hard.
The conflict has effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow chokepoint through which about 20% of the world's oil normally flows. Attacks on key infrastructure, including Qatar's massive Ras Laffan LNG hub, have triggered the largest natural gas disruption in history. Tankers are trapped, refineries and export terminals damaged, and shipments delayed for weeks or months even if fighting stops tomorrow. The result? Severe shortages of oil and gas products spreading around the planet.
This isn't just higher prices at the pump. It's empty fuel stations, panic buying, rationing in some places, and warnings of knock-on effects for food and fertiliser in the months ahead.
Look at the pictures coming out of Asia and Europe. In the Philippines, which imports 90% of its oil from the Middle East, the government has declared a national energy emergency, encouraged carpooling, and shifted to four-day workweeks for public offices. India is seeing 1970s-style queues at petrol stations with drivers waiting hours. Pakistan is cutting fuel allocations for official vehicles by up to 60% and talking about "smart lockdowns" to save diesel. Slovenia has become the first EU country to impose formal rationing — private drivers limited to 50 litres a day.
Europe faces a very cold winter if natural gas supplies stay tight. Qatar has declared force majeure on LNG contracts to major buyers including China, South Korea, Italy and Belgium after Iranian strikes hit its facilities. Russia has suspended some ammonium nitrate exports (critical for fertiliser), adding pressure on global food production further down the track.
Even if the war ends quickly, analysts say we're looking at a multi-week or multi-month gap in supply. Some estimates put the immediate disruption at around 8 million barrels of oil per day missing from the market — a massive shock bigger than the 1970s oil crises in percentage terms.
And then there's Australia.
We're feeling it right now on the ground. As of 26 March 2026, hundreds of petrol stations across the country have run dry. In Victoria, 109 outlets were missing at least one grade of petrol. Queensland reported 47 stations without diesel and 32 without regular unleaded. New South Wales had 37 stations out of petrol and over 100 without diesel. Overall, more than 160 stations on the east coast alone have been affected in recent days.
Six oil shipments bound for Australia never arrived. Demand has spiked in some areas (up to 400% in parts of Victoria according to state officials), and panic buying is making things worse. Prices have jumped sharply — nearly 50 cents a litre in major cities since late February — and in regional areas some stations are rationing or simply running out.
The Albanese government has moved to respond. Energy Minister Chris Bowen told Parliament the situation is serious but not yet at the point of formal rationing (the last time Australia rationed fuel was in the 1970s). They've struck a supply deal with Singapore to keep refined petrol and diesel flowing and are using Australia's coal and gas export muscle as leverage to secure imports from countries that rely on us. States have been given extra powers, public campaigns are urging people to conserve fuel, and there's talk of lowering some diesel quality standards temporarily to stretch supplies. Too little; to late.
Opposition voices are pushing harder — suggesting we lean even more on our coal and gas exports in negotiations, and in some cases even floating the idea of easing sanctions on Russian fertiliser if the crisis drags on (though that remains controversial).
For everyday Aussies, especially in regional areas, it's already inconvenient. You pull up to fill the tank and find the bowser empty. Truckies and farmers are feeling the pinch on diesel. Businesses reliant on transport are watching costs rise. And if the global gap isn't filled soon, we could see broader pressure on supply chains, including fertiliser for our farms.
The good news? Australia still has some small strategic reserves and diversified import options. The government insists we're "a long way" from the drastic measures some other countries have taken. The bad news? We're an import-dependent nation with relatively thin buffer stocks — historically around 30-40 days of petrol and diesel at normal consumption rates. Disruptions like this expose how vulnerable modern economies are when the oil tap gets turned off halfway around the world.
This crisis is a stark reminder that energy security isn't abstract. When the Middle East sneezes, the whole world — including quiet corners of Victoria — catches a cold at the bowser.
Fill up when you can, drive a bit smarter, and hope the diplomatic off-ramps we're hearing about actually stick. Because even a short war has already delivered a very real energy shock that won't disappear overnight.
https://michaeltsnyder.substack.com/p/severe-shortages-of-oil-and-gas-are https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/mar/23/petrol-stations-australia-fuel-crisis https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/jim-chalmers-warns-business-leaders-that-the-iran-crisis-could-be-worse-than-gfc-or-covid/news-story/0f82b619b685880011c6e37baab39097Jim Chalmers has warned that the economic impacts of the Iran War could be as damaging as the Covid pandemic or the global financial crisis, telling business leaders his doomsday predictions of the local impact from the Middle East conflict released less than a week ago may be too conservative.
The Treasurer's warning in a closed-door meeting with about 100 business leaders comes as consumer confidence hits its lowest point since records began in 1973 and Angus Taylor declares Labor's productivity predictions will cost every Australian about $35,000 in lost national income.
In the Tuesday night meeting that included members from the government and the Business Council of Australia, the Treasurer said the "end of the war can't come soon enough" and he may have been too conservative when he last week revealed that Treasury's modelling showed inflation could hit 5 per cent this year and growth could be constrained for the rest of the decade.
With the meeting heavily focused on the impacts of the looming fuel-supply crunch caused by Iran's effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Dr Chalmers said he had modelled a new and more damaging scenario where oil prices were higher than previously forecast and more industries were affected.
"This is the fifth big global economic shock in less than two decades, it could be just as serious as the four before it," Dr Chalmers said, according to notes provided to The Australian.
"We are well placed and well prepared, but we will be buffeted.
"Two things matter most here, how long the war lasts but also how long it takes to get the global economy back on track after it ends.
"We've seen the positive market response from speculation about US negotiations with Iran and from an economic point of view it's clear the end of the war can't come soon enough."
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2026/03/australias-energy-vulnerability-20-years-in-the-making/
