The Coming Anarchy 2.0: If Global Oil Resources Unravel, Robert Kaplan’s Dystopia May Finally Arrive, By Brian Simpson
The Macrobusiness.com.au article "A Mad Max World Emerges" (link below) captures a growing unease in early 2026: the ongoing US-Israeli campaign against Iran, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, export bans, and frantic national efforts to secure energy and food supplies are echoing the resource-driven chaos of the 21th century, much like the 14th century. Trade barriers rise, nations hoard, and conflict spreads. What begins as targeted strikes on Iranian facilities risks cascading into broader energy shortages that could tip the world toward something far darker — the kind of future journalist Robert D. Kaplan warned about in his influential 1994 essay "The Coming Anarchy."
Kaplan argued that the post-Cold War "end of history" optimism was dangerously naive. Instead of ideological clashes giving way to liberal democracy and peace, he foresaw a world shaped by scarcity, overpopulation, environmental stress, disease, mass migration, tribalism, and the erosion of nation-states. In West Africa he saw the preview: weak central governments, criminal anarchy, ethnic self-defence replacing ideology, and resource conflicts redefining politics along cultural and local lines.
Today, with diesel shortages stranding trucks across Australia, missile exchanges threatening Gulf oil flows, and hardliners in Iran openly discussing nuclear options, that vision feels less like distant prophecy and more like an emerging reality.
How Oil Unravelling Could Trigger Kaplan's Anarchy
Modern civilisation runs on cheap, abundant energy. Oil and diesel power not just transport but agriculture, supply chains, manufacturing, and emergency services. If major production or chokepoints unravel — through prolonged war in the Middle East, export restrictions, or cascading infrastructure attacks — the effects compound quickly:
Resource scarcity intensifies competition: Nations and regions begin hoarding fuel, food, and fertiliser. Export bans multiply. Shipping costs soar. Remote areas (including much of regional Australia) face empty pumps and empty shelves, exactly as we're seeing in parts of SA and the routes north to the Northern Territory.
State capacity erodes: Governments struggle with skyrocketing energy prices, inflation, and supply breakdowns. Police, ambulance, and fire services already face strain; prolonged shortages could force prioritisation or reduced coverage. In Kaplan's terms, central authority withers while local, tribal, or clan-based power structures fill the vacuum.
Mass migration and social fragmentation: Energy and food stress drive internal and cross-border movements. In Europe, we've already seen no-go enclaves and parallel societies emerge from poorly managed immigration. In a true energy crunch, these pressures multiply — urban crime rises, ethnic and cultural identities harden, and trust between groups collapses.
Criminal anarchy and privatised violence: When the state can't guarantee security or basic supplies, private security, armed groups, and warlords gain ground. Kaplan described "skinhead Cossacks and juju warriors" battling over scraps. In a Mad Max scenario, road warriors, fuel convoys under guard, and fortified communities become logical responses when long-haul trucking becomes too dangerous or expensive.
Environmental and health multipliers: Kaplan highlighted disease and environmental degradation as amplifiers. Today, add ethnic stress, aging infrastructure, and the fragility of just-in-time supply chains. A diesel crisis doesn't just strand trucks — it risks spoilage of food, failure of cold chains, and breakdowns in medical logistics.
The current Iran conflict illustrates the trigger mechanism. Even the present disruption to the Strait of Hormuz (which carries about one-fifth of global oil) sends prices spiking and forces nations into scramble mode. If the war grinds on until Iran's last missiles are gone — or escalates further — the resulting energy shock could accelerate Kaplan's predicted breakdown.
Australia's Particular Vulnerability
Australia is a massive exporter of energy (coal, LNG, uranium) yet remains heavily dependent on imported refined fuels, especially diesel for trucking and agriculture. Our vast distances and sparse population make us unusually exposed to transport fuel disruptions. The current diesel shortages on the Stuart Highway and regional SA are a small taste of what a deeper unravelling could look like: stranded supply chains, empty supermarket shelves in the bush, and pressure on remote communities.
We have largely followed a path of passive reliance — on global markets, on the US alliance, and on just-in-time imports — rather than building deep resilience through strategic fuel reserves, domestic refining capacity, or widespread skills in self-reliance. In a Mad Max–style future, strong, capable individuals and local communities matter more than centralised bureaucracy.
The Choice Ahead
Kaplan was criticised for pessimism in the 1990s, yet many of his underlying drivers — resource stress, weakening state legitimacy in parts of the world, and identity-based fragmentation — have proven durable. The difference now is the speed and connectivity of global systems: a shock in the Persian Gulf ripples instantly to Adelaide fuel stations and Darwin ports.
If oil resources unravel significantly, we may not see full Mad Max chaos overnight, but we could witness Kaplan's "coming anarchy" in slower motion: rising localised conflicts over resources, declining trust in institutions, stronger tribal or regional identities, and the gradual hollowing out of national cohesion.
The antidote lies in realism, not denial. Australia should treat energy security as a core national interest: rebuild strategic reserves, encourage domestic refining where viable, expand cadet-style resilience training, and prioritise policies that foster self-reliant citizens rather than dependent consumers.
A Mad Max world isn't inevitable, but ignoring the warning signs — diesel crises, Middle East flashpoints, and the fragility of global energy flows — makes Kaplan's dystopia more likely. The 14th-century parallels in the Macrobusiness piece are apt: when scarcity returns, so do old patterns of conflict, hoarding, and societal stress.
The question for 2026 and beyond is whether we prepare for a harder, more fragmented world — or continue pretending the age of easy energy and easy globalisation will last forever … which it won't.
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2026/03/mad-max-world-emerges/
