Putin's October 2025 Nuclear Weapons Claim: Analysis, By Chris Knight (Florida)

On October 10, 2025, during a press briefing at the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) summit in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, Russian President Vladimir Putin made headlines by announcing that Russia is "very actively" developing and testing a new generation of strategic nuclear weapons. He teased an imminent public reveal of a system that has been "brought to perfection" after successful tests, framing it as part of an ongoing global arms race. This statement comes amid stalled U.S.-Russia nuclear arms control talks, escalating tensions over Ukraine, and speculation about advanced systems like the nuclear-powered Burevestnik cruise missile. Below, I'll break down the claim's context, details, potential weapons, expert reactions, and broader implications, drawing on verified reports and analyses.

The Claim in Context

Putin's remarks were delivered in response to questions about the New START treaty, the last major U.S.-Russia nuclear arms control agreement, which caps deployed strategic warheads at 1,550 per side and expires on February 5, 2026. Russia suspended participation in 2023 (citing U.S. support for Ukraine) but has continued inspections and compliance verification. Last month, Moscow proposed a one-year extension, offering to voluntarily observe limits even without U.S. reciprocity. Putin reiterated this olive branch, saying: "We've proposed extending the New START Treaty for at least a year. Let everyone think about it." He added that it would be "no big deal" if the U.S. declines, as Russia would simply accelerate its own programs.

The timing is no coincidence. It follows U.S. President Donald Trump's September 2025 comments welcoming Russia's extension offer as a "good idea," amid reports of potential U.S. arms sales to Ukraine, including long-range Tomahawk missiles. Putin tied his nuclear boast to broader deterrence: "The sophistication of our nuclear deterrence systems is higher than that of any other nuclear state." He warned of a "certain kind of arms race" already underway, accusing unnamed countries (implicitly the U.S.) of preparing full-scale nuclear tests to verify aging warhead stockpiles, Russia would "do the same" if they proceed. This echoes Putin's pattern of nuclear sabre-rattling since the 2022 Ukraine invasion, but the specificity about an upcoming announcement marks an escalation.

What Exactly Did Putin Claim?

Putin's language was deliberately vague yet provocative, avoiding technical details while signalling progress:

Development and Testing: Russia is "developing all of this very actively," with systems "previously announced" now "progressing—we are bringing it to perfection." Tests are "going successfully," and an announcement is expected "soon."

Arms Race Framing: "A certain kind of arms race is indeed underway... Some countries are preparing for testing" of nuclear weapons, driven by doubts over computer simulations. Putin called real tests "good" for security but "bad" for restraint.

Deterrence Superiority: Russia's arsenal is "more innovative" than competitors', ensuring it remains the "main guarantee" of national security.

No prototypes or yields were specified, but Putin implied these are strategic (long-range, high-yield) systems to counter U.S. advancements like the Columbia-class submarine or B-21 bomber.

Likely Candidates: What "New" Weapons Could This Be?

Russia's nuclear modernisation, launched in 2010 and budgeted at ~$100 billion through 2027, has produced several "exotic" systems touted as game-changers. Putin's reference to "weapons we previously announced" points to programs unveiled in his 2018 address, many delayed by sanctions and technical issues. Experts speculate the reveal centres on the Burevestnik (9M730, "Storm Petrel" or "Skyfall"), given recent test reports. Here's a comparison of key systems:

Burevestnik (9M730) — Nuclear‑powered cruise missile. Key features: nuclear reactor propulsion for effectively unlimited range, low‑altitude flight to evade radar, claimed multi‑warhead capacity, speeds up to ~Mach 1. Status (Oct 2025): multiple tests since 2017; August 2025 Arctic engine test reported successful; deployment expected 2026. Why it fits Putin's claim: long‑range novel propulsion matches earlier public claims of a perfected system.

Poseidon (Status‑6) — Nuclear‑powered autonomous torpedo. Key features: very long range, concept of extremely high‑yield warhead and radioactive‑tsunami effect, submarine‑launched. Status (Oct 2025): prototype tested 2019; full deployment delayed to 2027; subcritical tests ongoing. Why it fits: autonomous sea‑based strategic weapon consistent with "new generation" systems.

Avangard — Hypersonic glide vehicle. Key features: very high re‑entry speeds and manoeuvrability, mounted on ICBMs (e.g., Sarmat). Status (Oct 2025): operational since 2019; several deployed. Why it fits: already fielded — further upgrades could justify "perfected."

RS‑28 Sarmat ("Satan II") — ICBM. Key features: intercontinental range (~11,000 miles), large payload enabling multiple MIRVs, silo/rail mobility. Status (Oct 2025): first regiment operational 2023; mixed tests with at least one failure in Sep 2024; ongoing force expansion. Why it fits: central strategic role and recent upgrades support claims of strengthened deterrent capability.

Oreshnik — Intermediate‑range ballistic missile (IRBM). Key features: hypersonic/MIRV‑capable, ~3,000‑mile range, used in theatre strikes. Status (Oct 2025): combat‑tested Nov 2024; mass production announced Jan 2025. Why it fits: new deployable system with battlefield application, aligns with claims of recent operational advances.

The Burevestnik stands out: A September 2025 U.S. intelligence report noted a "successful" engine test, aligning with Putin's timeline. Its nuclear propulsion promises "unlimited" loitering, but experts warn of risks like reactor meltdowns.

Expert Reactions and Verifiability

Analysts view the claim as a mix of bravado and genuine progress, but with heavy scepticism:

Arms Control Experts: The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) estimates Russia's arsenal at ~5,459 warheads (1,718 deployed), slightly ahead of the U.S.'s 5,244, but many are Soviet-era relics needing modernisation. Hans Kristensen of FAS called it "propaganda with a kernel of truth," noting delays in programs like Poseidon (originally due 2020). The Arms Control Association praised Russia's extension offer but urged verification resumption.

Military Analysts: RUSI's Malcolm Chalmers warned of "gifts" with strings, Russia's suspension of New START data-sharing erodes trust. Kyiv Post's analysis labelled it a "Wunderwaffe" tease to deter Western aid to Ukraine, possibly Burevestnik to threaten U.S. coasts.

U.S./NATO Response: Trump reiterated support for talks, but Pentagon officials dismissed it as "routine posturing." NATO's Mark Rutte called for de-escalation, citing Ukraine risks. No evidence of imminent tests; both sides adhere to the 1996 Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), though unratified.

Verifiability Challenges: Satellite imagery shows activity at Kapustin Yar test site, but opacity reigns; Russia classifies most data. Past claims (e.g., 2018 "superweapons") overpromised; Burevestnik's first flight test failed catastrophically in 2019, killing testers.

Broader Implications

For Arms Control: Without extension, New START's end could spark unchecked buildup, Russia plans 1,000+ new warheads by 2030. It risks a "use it or lose it" mindset in crises.

Ukraine War Link: The claim follows U.S. talks on arming Kyiv with ATACMS/Tomahawks; Putin framed it as a "mirror response" to Western escalation, including potential nuclear sharing with allies like Belarus.

Global Security: Heightens multipolar risks, China's arsenal grows (500+ warheads), and tests could unravel CTBT norms. Economically, sanctions hinder Russia's programs, but black-market tech (e.g., from North Korea) persists.

Best/Worst Cases: Optimistically, it prompts Trump-Xi-Putin talks at APEC. Pessimistically, miscalculation in Ukraine triggers tactical use, per CSIS wargames.

Putin's claim reinforces Russia's nuclear edge as asymmetric leverage, but it underscores mutual vulnerability in a post-START world. As he put it, real tests might "ensure security," or ignite catastrophe.

https://www.newsweek.com/putin-russia-new-nuclear-weapons-10860622