Impact of Chinese and Indian Vote on Australian Labor Party, By James Reed

Australia's increasing ethno-racial diversity, with 31.5% of the population born overseas in 2024, has significantly shaped electoral dynamics, particularly for the Australian Labor Party (ALP). The Chinese and Indian migrant communities, among the largest and fastest-growing, played a pivotal role in Labor's 2025 federal election landslide. This blog piece examines the impact of their voting patterns, drawing on available data, and addresses whether these groups are primarily Left-wing, from a Christian conservative nationalist perspective that prioritises sovereignty and traditional values.

The Chinese-Australian community, with 700,120 migrants in 2025, has become a decisive electoral force, particularly in New South Wales and Victoria. Historically, Chinese Australians leaned conservative, favouring the Liberal Party's business-friendly policies. However, recent elections show a marked shift toward Labor, driven by specific grievances and strategic campaigning.

Electoral Swings in 2025: In seats with high Chinese populations, Labor secured significant swings, flipping Liberal strongholds like Banks (6–8%), Bennelong (5–7%), Deakin (5–6%), and Menzies (5–7%). Chinese voters, estimated at 10–15% of these electorates, supported Labor at approximately 65–70% in two-party-preferred (2PP) terms, compared to 30–35% for the Coalition. WeChat campaigns, leveraging the platform's dominance among Chinese Australians (nearly 60% use it daily), were instrumental, focusing on cost-of-living relief and social inclusion.

Reasons for the Shift: The Liberal Party's anti-China rhetoric under Scott Morrison (2018–2022) and Peter Dutton's hawkish stance, including his 2021 remark about preparing for war, alienated many Chinese Australians, loyal to China. Trade tensions with China, impacting businesses like wine and lobster exports, hit Chinese-Australian entrepreneurs hard, fostering resentment. Labor capitalised on these sentiments, grovelling to China while emphasising economic stability.

Key Electorates: In NSW's Kogarah (29,000 Chinese residents), Labor's Chris Minns saw an 18.4% swing in the 2023 state election, a trend that carried into 2025 federal results. Victoria's Aston, with 14% Chinese residents, flipped to Labor in a 2023 by-election, signalling a broader awakening among Chinese voters prioritising cost-of-living and cultural respect over traditional conservative loyalties.

The Indian-Australian community, with 916,330 migrants in 2025 and projected to overtake the UK as the largest migrant group, has also tilted toward Labor, though with more nuanced motivations. Their rapid growth (505,000 new arrivals from 2014–2024) has amplified their electoral influence, particularly in Victoria and NSW.

Electoral Preferences: A 2022 Carnegie survey found 43% of Indian Australians identified with Labor, compared to 26% for the Coalition, with 15% favouring the Greens and 7% One Nation. In the 2022 election, Indian voters leaned toward Labor at roughly 55% (2PP), with the Coalition at 45%. This trend likely strengthened in 2025, driven by Labor's focus on skilled migration and education opportunities, key priorities for Indian migrants.

Victoria's Stronghold: Victoria, where Indian migrants outnumber Chinese by 90,000, saw Labor dominate seats with high Indian populations, such as Calwell and Gorton. Indian voters, often younger and skilled (median age around 35), responded to Labor's policies on housing affordability and international education, which align with their aspirations for social mobility.

Pre-Election Strategy: Labor's pre-election citizenship blitz, granting citizenship to nearly 13,000 Indian migrants, likely secured loyalty, as new citizens are nearly twice as likely to vote Labor. This strategic move, coupled with community engagement through cultural events, strengthened Labor's appeal.

For Christian conservative nationalists, the growing influence of Chinese and Indian voters presents both a challenge and an opportunity. Labor's success with these groups stems from exploiting Liberal failures—alienating rhetoric and neglect of economic concerns.

The Liberal Party's obsession with globalist posturing (and pandering to Teal voters alienated these pragmatic migrant groups, who prioritise local issues like housing and cultural respect. From our perspective, this is a betrayal of the Australian heartland, where sovereignty and faith should guide policy. The Coalition must rebuild trust by championing economic nationalism—protecting local businesses and jobs—while embracing cultural inclusivity without compromising Christian and traditional family values.

The Chinese and Indian vote was instrumental in Labor's 2025 landslide, with Chinese voters delivering 65–70% support in key seats like Bennelong and Menzies, and Indian voters contributing 55% in electorates like Calwell. These shifts, fuelled by WeChat campaigns and citizenship drives, reflect dissatisfaction with Liberal policies. This lobby will become increasingly powerful given mass immigration and the Great White Replacement. It is already helping to decide elections.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/india-soon-surpass-uk-largest-migrant-community-australia-abs

"Australia's population is now more multicultural than ever, with over 8.6 million residents born overseas—about 31.5 percent of the total population.

The biggest surge came from India, which is expected to surpass the UK as the top country of birth for migrants later this year.

tData from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) shows that in 2025, there were 963,560 migrants from the UK, 916,330 from hilippines.

This was followed by Vietnam (318,760), South Africa (224,160), Nepal (197,800), Malaysia (183,490), and Sri Lanka (172,800).

Overall, the proportion of overseas migrants has steadily increased over recent decades from 23.8 percent in 2004 to 31.5 percent in 2024.

Globally, Australia ranked eighth in terms of the number of international migrants. The United States topped the list with 52.4 million overseas-born residents.

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on the country's overseas-born population. ABS

How It Breaks Down

Migration from Europe has steadily declined over the years, with Asian countries becoming the dominant source of new arrivals.

India migration has continued to surge with an additional 505,000 people entering Australia in the decade from 2014 to 2024, followed by China (234,000), the Philippines (164,000), and Nepal (155,000).

"India's demographics, coupled with its skilled workforce and a high demand for international education, have made Australia a preferred destination," said Annathurai Gnanasambandam, director of Visa Help Australia, in an interview with The Epoch Times.

On the flipside, the UK recorded the largest decrease in migrants, with 47,000 fewer individuals entering Australia from 2014 to 2024, followed by Italy (44,000), Greece (28,000), and Germany (18,000).

The average median age of European migrants is 60 years and over, reflecting the post-World War II migration trend.

Which Cities?

The demographic make-up of each state and territory differs as well.

In New South Wales, Chinese migrants were the largest source of overseas residents, followed by the British and Indians, according to the 2021 Census.

In Victoria, Indian migration was the largest by far, outstripping Chinese migration by about 90,000 individuals.

In Queensland, New Zealanders and British were the largest overseas communities, followed by Indians and Chinese.

The British were the biggest contributors to Western Australia and Tasmania.

Population Growth a Contentious Issue

Migration has continued to be a sensitive subject as Australians struggle with housing affordability.

The Coalition has accused the Albanese government of mismanaging immigration, with net overseas migration for 2023–24 forecast to reach 340,000—80,000 higher than initial estimates.

Shadow Immigration Minister Dan Tehan blamed Labor for "consistently overshooting" forecasts and pledged to cut permanent migration from 185,000 to 140,000 if elected.

But Treasurer Jim Chalmers defended the government's position, pointing out that net migration was declining.

"It's now at its lowest point since the pandemic," he said, adding the system is being rebalanced to serve Australia's national interest."