Did a Civil War in Mexico Just Ignite? By Charles Taylor (Florida)
The killing of Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes, better known as "El Mencho" — the long-elusive boss of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) — on February 22, 2026, in a Mexican military raid in Tapalpa, Jalisco, has ignited one of the most dramatic flare-ups of cartel violence in recent memory. Michael Snyder's Substack piece (Feb 24, 2026) asks bluntly: "Did A Civil War in Mexico Just Begin?" He points to the immediate aftermath — highway blockades with burning vehicles in over a dozen states, gunfire in Puerto Vallarta and Guadalajara, chaos at airports, a torched Costco, and tourists dodging flames — as signs of a tipping point. The New York Post (Feb 23) echoed the alarm with spring break warnings, noting thousands stranded in Puerto Vallarta amid retaliatory attacks that killed at least 25 National Guard members and 30 cartel gunmen.
Is this the spark for a full-blown Mexican civil war? The short answer: Not yet — but the risk is real, higher than it's been in years, and the ingredients are all there.
What Actually Happened: The Raid and Immediate Blowback
Mexican special forces, aided by U.S. intelligence (though President Claudia Sheinbaum denies direct U.S. boots-on-ground involvement), tracked El Mencho via a romantic partner's visit and killed him in a fierce shootout. CJNG's response was swift and coordinated: "narco-blockades" (burning buses, trucks, and cars to paralyse roads), attacks on security forces, and arson targeting businesses. Violence hit Jalisco hardest (CJNG's stronghold, including Guadalajara and Puerto Vallarta), but spread to states like Colima, Michoacán, Guanajuato, and beyond — over 250 incidents reported across 20 of Mexico's 32 states.
The death toll climbed quickly: dozens dead on both sides, including civilians caught in crossfire. Tourists sheltered in place under U.S. Embassy alerts; some described dodging burning taxis while clutching rosaries. By Feb 24–25, Mexican officials claimed order was largely restored — blockades cleared, additional troops deployed — but the episode exposed how fragile "normalcy" is when a kingpin falls.
Why "Civil War" Talk is Surging
Experts aren't using the term lightly:
Power vacuum inside CJNG — El Mencho ran the cartel like a "dictator." Without a clear successor (his brother faces U.S. charges; second-in-command "El Tuli" was killed in related ops), factions could splinter and fight internally for turf, smuggling routes, and fentanyl profits. Analysts like Chris Dalby (author on CJNG) warn this could escalate to "record levels of homicide" or even "civil war between different factions."
Broader cartel fracturing — CJNG already rivals the weakened Sinaloa Cartel (itself in internal war post-"El Mayo" arrest). A weakened CJNG invites rivals to pounce on Jalisco/Michoacán territories, potentially dragging in proxies and escalating multi-front wars.
State vs. narco showdown — Cartels demonstrated "narco-terrorism" tactics: blockades, fires, intimidation. If CJNG (or fragments) declares open war on the government — bombings, assassinations, attacks on infrastructure — it could mirror 1980s–90s Colombia under Pablo Escobar. Some see Sheinbaum's aggressive move (pressured by Trump-era U.S. threats of unilateral action) as risking exactly that escalation.
Historical precedent — Kingpin strategy rarely works long-term. Killing/capturing leaders (e.g., El Chapo, El Mayo) often fragments groups, spikes short-term violence, and creates more violent splinter cells. Mexico's homicide rate could surge again if no unified successor emerges.
Snyder amps the drama: If cartels unite against the state (unlikely, but possible if U.S. involvement fuels anti-government rage), or if blowback hits U.S. soil, it could invite American intervention — potentially a real interstate conflict.
Why It's Probably Not Full Civil War... Yet
Localised and short-lived so far — Most violence was retaliatory theatre to show strength, not a sustained insurgency. Tourist zones like Cancun/Cabo remain untouched; major cities stabilised quickly.
Sheinbaum's approach — Unlike predecessors' "hugs not bullets," she's rebuilding security forces and hitting high-value targets. She insists Mexico is "at peace" and coordinates with states. Gains in overall security metrics pre-raid suggest containment is possible.
Cartels' business model — They profit from drugs/ extortion, not governing territory like insurgents. Full war disrupts cash flow; most prefer low-profile corruption over open confrontation.
No widespread popular uprising — Unlike true civil wars (Syria, Yemen), this remains criminal vs. state, not ideological or ethnic mobilisation.
The Bigger Picture: A Tipping Point?
Mexico isn't collapsing tomorrow, but this episode highlights how cartel power rivals (or exceeds) the state's in key regions. CJNG controls vast smuggling corridors; their arsenal includes drones, RPGs, even landmines. If internal fractures turn bloody, or if rivals exploit the vacuum, 2026 could see homicide spikes rivalling 2010s peaks — especially risky with the FIFA World Cup looming in Guadalajara and other venues.
For spring breakers and travellers: Heed advisories—Puerto Vallarta/California-adjacent areas were hit hardest, but broader Mexico tourism rebounds fast. The real long-term fear isn't tourists being targeted (cartels avoid that bad PR), but ordinary Mexicans facing extortion, recruitment, or stray bullets in escalating turf fights.
Mexico's "war on drugs" has always been asymmetric. El Mencho's death is a win for Sheinbaum and Trump — but history shows such wins often plant seeds for worse chaos. A true civil war remains speculative hyperbole for now... but the line between cartel war and national breakdown has never felt thinner.
https://michaeltsnyder.substack.com/p/did-a-civil-war-in-mexico-just-begin
