Covid-19 Vaccination Effectiveness and Public Health Trust: A Critical Analysis of New Zealand, Australia, and UK Data, By Brian Simpson and Chris Knight (Florida)

Ramesh Thakur's post on Daily Sceptic challenges the narrative that Covid-19 vaccines were effective in preventing deaths, using data from New Zealand, Australia, and the UK. It highlights a dramatic rise in Covid-19 deaths in New Zealand (from 44 in December 2021 to 4,538 by May 2025) and Australia after high vaccination coverage, contrasted with a modest increase in the UK. Thakur attributes this to lower natural immunity in Australasia due to early border closures, questioning vaccine efficacy and linking eroded public trust to declining childhood vaccination rates. This blog piece evaluates these claims.

Vaccination Coverage and Mortality Trends

New Zealand

New Zealand's elimination strategy in 2020–2021 delayed widespread Covid-19 transmission until after vaccination began in February 2021, primarily with the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. By December 29, 2021, 75% of the population had received two doses, rising to 80% by June 8, 2022. Despite this, deaths rose from 44 to 2,095 by June 2022 and 4,538 by May 2025. A ScienceDirect study estimates vaccines saved 6,650 lives and prevented 45,100 hospitalizations between January 2022 and June 2023, but inequities in rollout led to higher Māori mortality (11–26% of 292 deaths potentially preventable with equitable coverage). The rise in deaths post-vaccination coincided with the Omicron wave and relaxed border controls, suggesting vaccines at best, mitigated, but did not eliminate severe outcomes, particularly in a previously unexposed population.

Australia

Australia, like New Zealand, pursued a "zero-Covid" strategy, achieving high vaccination rates (two-thirds double-vaccinated by November 2021). Deaths surged 6.9 times from November 2021 to August 2022, peaking in January–February 2023. This aligns with the relaxation of strict controls and Omicron's spread in a population with low prior infection (0.7% infected by November 2021). The Australian Department of Health's June 2025 guidance, noting low risk of severe illness in healthy children and advising against routine vaccination, reflects a reassessment of benefits versus risks in low-risk groups.

United Kingdom

The UK, with widespread transmission before vaccines (14% infected by November 2021), saw a modest 1.2-fold increase in deaths over the same period. By August 2022, cumulative case rates were similar across all three countries (35–37%), but the UK's earlier infections likely conferred greater natural immunity, reducing mortality as vaccines rolled out. Peaks in UK deaths occurred pre-vaccination, unlike Australasia's post-vaccination spikes.

Evaluating Vaccine Effectiveness

Thakur's claim that these statistics falsify vaccine effectiveness, invoking Karl Popper's falsifiability criterion, is insightful. Vaccine effectiveness against transmission, particularly for Omicron, was limited (88% efficacy against symptomatic Delta, lower for Omicron). The post-vaccination death spikes in Australasia align with relaxed controls and Omicron's higher transmissibility.

The UK's lower mortality increase likely reflects hybrid immunity (vaccination plus prior infection), which studies show is more robust than vaccine-induced immunity alone. Australasia's low pre-vaccination infection rates (0.7% in Australia, 0.2% in New Zealand vs. 14% in the UK) left populations vulnerable when borders reopened. Natural immunity, while not perfect, offers broader and longer-lasting protection, as Thakur notes, supported by literature indicating its superiority over vaccine immunity for healthy individuals under 70.

Erosion of Public Health Trust

The post highlights a significant consequence of perceived inconsistencies in public health messaging: eroded trust. Australia's childhood vaccination rates have fallen to "critical" levels, risking herd immunity for diseases like measles. New Zealand ranks sixth-lowest among high-income countries for childhood vaccine coverage in 2023, with declines exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic. The UK also reports slumping childhood vaccination rates below the 95% herd immunity threshold.

This erosion stems from several factors:

Mixed Messaging: The FDA's promotion of mRNA vaccines as "safe and effective" for pregnant women, despite Dr. Sara Brenner's personal refusal, and Dr. Janet Woodcock's private support for ivermectin testing followed by public dismissal, fuel perceptions of hypocrisy.

Mandates and Coercion: New Zealand's mandates for health workers and teachers, with job losses for non-compliance, and anti-vaccination backlash (e.g., Destiny Church's threats) deepened public scepticism.

Inequities: Lower Māori and Pacific vaccination rates in New Zealand highlight systemic failures, undermining trust in marginalised communities.

A ScienceDirect survey from March 2021 found 70% of New Zealanders were vaccine-willing, but younger, less educated, and female respondents were more hesitant, citing side effect concerns. This hesitancy has spilled over into childhood vaccination, with global declines in DTP3 and measles coverage post-2019, particularly in Latin America and high-income countries.

Thakur's point about trust erosion is compelling. Inconsistent messaging, such as the FDA's shifting stances or Australia's reversal on paediatric vaccination, fuels scepticism. The perception that public health prioritises pharmaceutical interests, evident in the dismissal of ivermectin despite early promise, exacerbates distrust. New Zealand's vandalism of vaccination clinics and Australia's declining childhood vaccination rates reflect this crisis.

The data from New Zealand and Australia highlight the limitations of vaccines in preventing deaths in Covid-naïve populations post-reopening. The UK's lower mortality increase underscores the role of natural immunity.

https://dailysceptic.org/2025/06/25/an-australian-sceptical-note-on-covid-19-vaccine-effectiveness/