Britain’s Descent into Chaos: The Crime Crisis and Reform UK’s Rise, By Richard Miller (Londonistan)
The British public's growing alarm over crime, as revealed in a July 2025 Survation poll, is not mere hyperbole, it reflects a nation spiralling into chaos. With 74% of Britons viewing knife crime as "out of control," 70% saying the same for theft, and 69% for drug-related crimes, the perception of a "lawless Britain" is taking root, with 48% agreeing the country is becoming ungovernable. This blog post argues that the majority are right: crime is surging, driven by unchecked migration, lenient sentencing, and eroded policing, while the Labour government under Keir Starmer appears incapable of stemming the tide. Nigel Farage's Reform UK, trusted by 27% to restore law and order, emerges as a potent force, capitalising on public frustration with a failing system. If current trends persist, Britain risks descending further into disorder, with Reform UK's rise signalling a desperate call for change.
The Survation poll, conducted for Friderichs Advisory Partners, paints a grim picture: 60% of Britons see violent crime as out of control, 55% feel the same about burglary, and 57% lack confidence in Labour's ability to tackle crime. Official data backs this perception. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported a 4% rise in total crime in England and Wales for the year ending March 2025, with knife crime up 7% and shoplifting soaring 24% to 470,000 incidents. Posts on X echo this, with users describing "terrifying experiences" in London and police inaction, signalling a collapse in public safety.
Farage's claim that total crime is 50% higher than in the 1990s, holds water. ONS data shows recorded crime in 2024–2025 at 6.1 million incidents, compared to 4.1 million in 1995. Shoplifting and theft, often uninvestigated due to police resource constraints, have eroded trust, with only 7% of cases leading to charges. Violent crime, including a 9% spike in assaults, reflects a broader failure to deter repeat offenders, exacerbated by early release schemes. The Telegraph reports Reform UK's pledge to end early releases for serious offenders and add 30,000 prison spaces, addressing a prison overcrowding crisis that saw 1,700 inmates freed early in 2024.
The poll identifies migration as the top perceived driver of crime (22%), surpassing economic inequality (20%) and lenient sentencing (17%). This perception is fuelled by incidents like the 708 criminal charges against 312 asylum seekers in 70 UK hotels, including rape and arson, as reported by the Mail on Sunday. While not all migrants are criminals, the strain of 315,000 net migrants in 2024, 62% of projected population growth by 2036, has overwhelmed communities, particularly in areas like Bournemouth and Oxford, where crime and social tensions are rising.
Reform UK's hardline stance resonates here. Farage's promise to deport foreign criminals, backed by 37% of poll respondents, contrasts with Starmer's 17% and Badenoch's 11%. An Ipsos poll shows Reform leading on immigration trust (37%), with 67% of Britons believing immigration is "too high." Farage's rhetoric, taps into public frustration over "two-tier policing" and perceived leniency toward migrant offenders, as seen in cases like the Lucy Connelly sentencing for a racist post, which sparked outrage over inconsistent justice.
The Labour government's inability to address crime is a key driver of public distrust. Only 21% trust Starmer to ensure law and order, compared to Farage's 27%. Labour's policies, like cutting winter fuel payments for pensioners and raising national insurance, have alienated voters, with approval ratings plummeting to 25.2% by March 2025, a 12.3-point drop since July 2024. The Guardian notes this as the worst decline for any new government in 40 years, compounded by scandals and economic woes.
Policing failures exacerbate the crisis. Budget cuts under prior Conservative governments slashed 20,000 officers since 2010, and Labour's promise of 13,000 new "neighbourhood police" has been criticised as inadequate. Two-tier policing, where protests by certain groups face lighter scrutiny, has eroded trust, with Farage citing cases like lenient handling of pro-Palestine demonstrations versus harsh sentences for social media posts. The Home Office's own data shows a 44% rise in street crime and a million anti-social behavior incidents, yet police prioritise "non-crime hate incidents" (NCHIs), diverting resources from serious offenses.
Nigel Farage's Reform UK is capitalising on this chaos, with 29% trusting him to make Britain safer, compared to Starmer's 20% and Badenoch's 12%. Polls show Reform surging, with a YouGov survey giving them 29% against Labour's 23% and Conservatives' 17%, potentially securing a slim parliamentary majority if replicated in 2029. Reform's gains in local elections, 677 seats and 10 councils in 2025, signal a shift, with victories in Tory and Labour heartlands like Canvey Island and Caernarvonshire.,
Farage's platform, tougher sentencing, 30,000 more police, and deporting foreign criminals, resonates with a public fed up with "soft" justice. His "commit the crime, pay the price" policy, including life sentences for drug trafficking and no suspended sentences for knife crimes, contrasts with Labour's perceived leniency and the Independent Sentencing Review's suggestion to release violent offenders after a third of their sentence. Reform's appeal, particularly among working-class and over-50 voters (35% of 50–64-year-olds support them), reflects a broader rejection of the establishment.
If unchecked, Britain's crime wave could spiral further. The ONS projects a 10% rise in violent crime by 2030 if trends continue, with knife crime already claiming 247 lives in 2024. Economic stagnation, with Labour's tax hikes stifling growth, and migration pressures risk fuelling social unrest, as seen in protests over migrant-related crimes in Spain and the UK. The Guardian warns that Labour's rightward shift to counter Reform risks alienating its progressive base, potentially fracturing the political landscape further.
The British public is right, crime is out of control, and Labour's floundering response is deepening the crisis. Migration, lenient sentencing, and policing failures have created a perfect storm, eroding trust and fuelling Reform UK's ascent. Without bold action, Britain risks becoming the "lawless country" 48% already fear, with Reform UK poised to exploit the fallout. The time for complacency is over — Britain's future hangs in the balance.
"A majority of British voters believe that serious crime is "out of control" and that the left-wing Labour Party government is incapable of solving the issue, while many increasingly favour Nigel Farage and Reform UK to confront crime.
A poll of 2,000 British adults conducted by Survation on behalf of Friderichs Advisory Partners found that strong majorities think that key areas of crime have become "out of control". At the same time, nearly half of the respondents agreed with the statement that Britain is "becoming a lawless country".
According to the poll, 74 per cent of Britons believe that knife crime is "out of control", while 70 per cent said the same for theft, 69 per cent for drug-related crimes, 60 per cent for violent crime overall, and 55 per cent for burglary, The Sun reports.
In a worrying sign for the embattled left-wing government of Sir Kier Starmer, a majority of the public (52 per cent) do not have faith in the prime minister to reduce crime. Overall, 57 per cent said they were "not confident" in the Labour Party government's ability to tackle crime.
When questioned on the reasons for the crime wave in Britain, the top answer given was an increase in migration at 22 per cent. This was followed by "economic inequality" at 20 per cent and "lenient sentencing" at 17 per cent.
The connection seen by the public between mass migration and crime perhaps explains why Reform UK leader Nigel Farage is trusted more than any other political leader in Britain in terms of crime.
The poll found that 27 per cent believe Farage is best placed to ensure law and order, compared to 21 per cent for Prime Minister Starmer and only 14 per cent for Tory leader Kemi Badenoch.
Similarly, the Reform UK boss was also the most trusted to make the country safer at 29 per cent, followed by Starmer at 20 per cent and Badenoch at 12 per cent.
Additionally, 37 per cent of respondents said that Mr Farage was more likely to deport foreign criminals back to their homelands. Conversely, just 17 per cent listed Starmer as the most likely and 11 per cent for Badenoch.
Commenting on the results of the poll, the founder of Friderichs Advisory Partners, Daniel Friderichs, said: "It is clear there is only one politician in town that the British people trust to restore law and order — and it isn't Keir Starmer or Kemi Badenoch."
For his part, Farage said: "This new polling confirms what many of us already knew — Britain has become a lawless country. It lays bare the lack of faith the British people have in Labour to make our streets and communities safe. And it's not hard to understand the reasons why. Total crime is now 50 per cent higher than it was in the 1990s. Police no longer investigate or attend shoplifting or theft. Violent repeat offenders are released early and two-tier policing has completely eroded trust."
The Reform leader said that there is a belief that Prime Minister Starmer "goes easy on the criminals" and that successive Conservative Party governments were to blame as well for their cuts to police and their open borders agenda which allowed millions of migrants into the country, for which he said they should "never be forgiven".
"Reform UK will fix broken Britain and restore law and order in our country. The British people deserve nothing less. This is a topic you'll be hearing a lot more about from us over the next few days and weeks. Career criminals will be put on notice. This is a national emergency and, after years of complacency by the other parties, it's clear that lawless Britain needs Reform," Farage said.
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