Australia’s Survival Demands a Nuclear Reckoning, By James Reed
Australia faces an existential threat in the Indo-Pacific, and our current defence strategy is woefully inadequate. China's military, growing at a pace unseen since World War II, casts a long shadow over our region. With a nuclear arsenal projected to exceed 1,000 warheads by 2030, a navy wielding nuclear-powered supercarriers, and advanced anti-access systems, Beijing is reshaping the balance of power. Our reliance on conventional arms and the US alliance, while vital, is not enough. To secure our future, Australia must develop its own nuclear deterrent, a decision that requires the courage to confront domestic opposition and act decisively.
China's military expansion is relentless. Its defence budget, officially $245 billion but likely closer to $377 billion, dwarfs our own. Their Type 004 supercarrier, backed by networked combat systems and long-range missiles, challenges US naval dominance in the Pacific. Meanwhile, their war games near Taiwan and naval presence off our east coast signal a clear intent: to dominate the Indo-Pacific. Our planned defence spending, set to reach 2.33% of GDP by 2033, and AUKUS submarines, due in 2050, are steps forward but fall short against China's nuclear and conventional superiority. Their anti-access/area-denial systems could neutralise our air bases and ships in a conflict, leaving us vulnerable.
The US remains our key ally, but their call for allies to bolster their own defences underscores a hard truth: we cannot depend solely on their nuclear umbrella. AUKUS is a start, but conventionally armed submarines won't deter a nuclear-armed adversary. China's growing influence, coupled with Russia's nuclear posturing and North Korea's provocations, risks a new wave of global proliferation. Nations like South Korea are already exploring nuclear options. Australia cannot afford to be left behind.
Why didn't we pursue nuclear weapons post-World War II? We leaned on the US for security and focused on rebuilding, and Anglo-Saxon replacement by mass migration. But the strategic landscape has changed. China's opacity about its military ambitions and its dismissal of international norms demand a response. A nuclear deterrent, tactical, not strategic, would give Australia the leverage to deter aggression without relying on escalation to full-scale war. Our uranium reserves and AUKUS partnerships provide a foundation to build this capability.
The obstacle is political will. Progressive voices will argue that nuclearisation fuels arms races and undermines peace. Some conservatives, wary of costs or public backlash, may hesitate. But this is not about ideology, it's about survival. China's actions show they value power over diplomacy. Without a credible deterrent, we risk becoming a bystander in our own region, subject to Beijing's whims. A nuclear arsenal would signal that any aggression against Australia carries unacceptable costs.
The path forward is clear: leverage AUKUS technology, invest in nuclear infrastructure, and rally public support for a policy that ensures our sovereignty. The alternative, inaction, leaves us exposed in a region where power, not promises, dictates outcomes. We must act now, with resolve, to secure Australia's future. Anything less is a betrayal of our national interest.
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