The political class is intent on obscuring the debate on Australia's migration program.
This came up again this week when former Deputy Secretary of the Department of Immigration Abul Rizvi told 3AW's Tom Elliott that net overseas migration (NOM) currently sits at 300,000, and that the IPA incorrectly put that figure near 500,000.
To correct Rizvi: the IPA never claimed NOM was 500,000. We said that the net permanent and long-term arrivals (NPLT) between June 2025 and May 2026 were 483,410.
The data we analysed is real but you aren't supposed to talk about the data – because no matter how you slice it the current migration program is painted in a poor light at a time of significant public concern. Remember, IPA research from earlier this year showed that eight-in-ten Australians would prefer an annual net migration intake of 100,000 or fewer.
The reason the IPA uses the NPLT data is two-fold: the NPLT is a count of permanent and long term (greater than 12 months) arrivals minus departures. It is released every month, and we have data up to the month of May 2026.
In contrast, NOM is a quarterly estimate for overseas migration which we only have up to the December quarter of 2025.
It's not the first time that the elites have taken aim at IPA analysis of migrant flows. In August last year, I defended our research, as ABC's Media Watch claimed that media outlets discussing overseas arrivals to Australia – equating to about 1,500 per day in 2025 – was misleading or inaccurate.
At the time, I reminded Australians that the ABS produces and publishes the NPLT, and they stand by it:
The ABS themselves, in their descriptions of the methodology, acknowledge that these measures are closely linked and are leading indicators of each other. And if it's good enough for them, then it's good enough for Australians to talk about.
This is not a dispute about the data. The debate is about people actually talking about the data. The IPA won't shy away from that debate and will continue to rigorously defend our research.
Thank you for your support.
Morgan Begg
Director of Research