The Middle East finds itself on a precipice, teetering on the edge of a conflict that could rapidly escalate beyond regional boundaries and plunge the world into an unprecedented crisis. While the immediate focus might be on the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, a more chilling perplexity issue looms: what happens if other nations, notably Pakistan, and crucially, global powers like Russia and China, are drawn into this volatile mix? The answer, tragically, is a potential fast-track to a doomsday scenario.
Should Pakistan, a nuclear-armed nation with a deeply complex relationship with both Iran and the wider Islamic world, formally enter a conflict on Iran's side, the geopolitical landscape would instantly transform. This isn't merely about adding another military to the equation; it's about introducing a nuclear dimension to an already highly unstable region.
While Pakistan is predominantly Sunni and Iran Shia, pan-Islamic sentiments could be inflamed, potentially overriding sectarian differences. Such involvement could trigger severe internal instability within Pakistan itself and reverberate across the Muslim world, exacerbating existing sectarian fault lines. Furthermore, Pakistan's already fragile economy would be crippled, leading to a humanitarian catastrophe on an unimaginable scale. Most critically, the presence of its nuclear arsenal within a direct conflict zone would exponentially raise the risk of miscalculation, accidental deployment, or even the terrifying prospect of losing control over these weapons. Even if other Islamic nations don't send troops, the immense popular and political pressure could lead to widespread economic and diplomatic boycotts against the US and Israel, further disrupting global markets.
The potential for direct intervention by Russia and China is what truly elevates this regional tension to a global existential threat. Both nations have deeply vested interests in Iran and the broader Middle East, underpinned by strategic alliances and economic lifelines.
Russia views Iran as a pivotal ally, especially given their cooperation in Syria and Iran's role in supplying critical military aid in the Ukraine conflict. Any harm to Russian personnel in Iran or a perceived threat to its strategic interests could prompt direct, though perhaps initially limited, military intervention. The horrifying implication here is the immediate risk of nuclear escalation. Russia is a nuclear superpower; direct engagement with US forces would bring the world perilously close to a tactical nuclear exchange, with the terrifying potential for a full-scale nuclear war. Such a confrontation would also open a major new front in the ongoing global proxy conflict, diverting resources and attention from other critical issues and effectively extinguishing any hope for a negotiated end to the war in Ukraine.
China's interests are primarily economic, with over 90% of Iran's oil exports flowing into the Chinese market. The collapse of the Iranian regime or any significant disruption to oil flows through the critical Strait of Hormuz would deal a devastating blow to China's energy security and its economy. Direct Chinese involvement would almost certainly trigger an unprecedented level of economic warfare with the US and its allies, unravelling decades of globalised trade and finance. This would lead to a rapid and severe decoupling of economies, fragmenting the global system into rival blocs. Moreover, a full-blown US-China conflict in the Middle East could have severe repercussions for the strategic calculus around Taiwan, potentially igniting another flashpoint in the Indo-Pacific.
Even without direct military clashes between global superpowers, an escalated conflict would unleash a torrent of devastating ripple effects:
Economic Meltdown: The immediate threat of Iran closing or disrupting the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of the world's oil and gas passes, would trigger unprecedented oil price spikes, global recession, and severe energy crises. Beyond energy, widespread disruptions to supply chains due to blockades, attacks on shipping, and prohibitive insurance costs could paralyse global trade and manufacturing.
Cyber Chaos: Such a conflict would undoubtedly escalate into widespread and sophisticated cyberattacks targeting critical global infrastructure, financial systems, power grids, communication networks, leading to societal chaos far from the physical battlegrounds.
Humanitarian Catastrophe: A major war in the Middle East would unleash unprecedented waves of refugees, overwhelming aid agencies and placing immense strain on neighbouring countries and host nations, exacerbating existing humanitarian challenges.
Political Instability and Nuclear Wildcard: The potential for regime collapse in Iran or other involved nations could create dangerous power vacuums, leading to further instability and the rise of new, potentially more radical, non-state actors. And looming over all these scenarios is the terrifying spectre of nuclear escalation. With multiple nuclear powers directly or indirectly involved, the chances of miscalculation, unintended escalation, or even a deliberate tactical nuclear strike, skyrocket, presenting an existential threat to all of humanity.
The current situation is far more precarious than many realize. The interconnectedness of global geopolitics, economic dependencies, and strategic alliances means that a localised conflict can rapidly spiral into a global conflagration. The alarming reality, as suggested by some observers, is that much of the world remains unaware, "sleepwalking into the kinetic phase of World War III."
https://michaeltsnyder.substack.com/p/russia-and-china-are-100-in-irans
"The U.S. is squarely with Israel, and Russia and China are firmly behind Iran. What could go wrong? Most people don't seem to realize that we are at an extremely dangerous moment in world history. What do you think would happen if other Islamic nations entered the war on Iran's side? Or what do you think would happen if Russia or China entered the war on Iran's side? The Iranians are on the ropes for now, but if their friends decide to jump into the conflict that could change very rapidly.
According to Newsweek, on Thursday Russian President Vladimir Putin had a phone conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping during which they both strongly condemned Israel…
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping held a call on Thursday during which they both condemned Israel for striking Iran, the Kremlin said.
The two allies condemned "Israeli actions which violated the U.N. Charter and other norms of international law," Putin aide Yuri Ushakov said, Reuters reports.
Xi called for an immediate ceasefire and warned the conflict between Israel and Iran risks spreading to other countries in the region.
"If the conflict escalates further, not only will the conflicting parties suffer greater losses, but regional countries will also suffer greatly," Xi said during the call, according to the official Xinhua News Agency.
This is extremely alarming.
Why isn't this getting more attention in the western media?
The day before, a spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs warned that China "is deeply concerned" about developments in the Middle East…
At a regular press briefing on Wednesday, Lin Jian, a spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, was asked for Beijing's response to Trump's remarks about Khameini and Iran.
"China is deeply concerned about the developments of the current situation," Lin said. "We oppose any acts that violate the purposes and principles of the U.N. Charter, [and] violate other countries' sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity. The escalation of the situation in the Middle East serves no one's interest.
"Countries that have special influence over Israel should take objective and just positions, shoulder their due responsibilities, and play an active and constructive role in easing the situation, and avoiding the expansion of the conflict."
The Chinese have invested a lot of time and energy developing close ties with the current Iranian regime.
And at this point more than 90 percent of the oil that Iran exports ends up in China…
Officially, China imported no oil from Iran last year. However, energy researchers say Iranian oil delivered via unofficial channels, such as transshipment, largely end up in the country's smaller independent refineries. The U.S. has sanctioned Chinese entities that allegedly assist in Iran's secret oil trade in defiance of Western restrictions.
Over 90 percent of Iran's sanctioned—and therefore cheaper—crude oil exports go to China, including via transshipment points such as Malaysia, said commodities analysts at Kpler. But Chinese energy imports are further exposed in or near the Persian Gulf, where six of its top 10 oil suppliers are found in official government statistics.
If the Iranian government collapses, it would definitely hurt China in a number of different ways.
The Chinese are watching what is going on, and they are not pleased at all.
If President Trump ultimately decides to give the green light for U.S. airstrikes in Iran, that will make the Chinese even angrier.
Sadly, I have a feeling that our rapidly deteriorating relationship with China will become a major story in the not too distant future.
Meanwhile, the Russians are using even stronger language to denounce Israel's actions in Iran.
In fact, a spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry just called for the Israeli government "to come to its senses"…
Maria Zakharova, spokeswoman of the Russian Foreign Ministry, said attacking nuclear sites keeps us "on the brink of a catastrophe whose implications will be felt everywhere, even in Israel."
She said Russia "calls on the Israeli leadership to come to its senses and immediately stop attacks on nuclear installations."
"We are particularly concerned about the safety of the Bushehr nuclear power plant, which employs Russian specialists," Zakharova said.
How will Russia respond if Russians that are working in Iran start dying?
Let's hope that we don't find out.
The Russians and the Iranians have gotten very close in recent years, and not too long ago the two nations signed a series of very important agreements.
They do not have a formal military alliance, but without a doubt Iran is one of Russia's key allies.
So this attack on Iran is a really big deal for the Russians.
For a few months it seemed like our relations with Russia were improving, but now things are very much going in reverse.
The next round of talks between the U.S. and Russia has been canceled, and if the U.S. starts conducting air strikes in Iran any hope for a negotiated end to the war in Ukraine will probably be gone for the foreseeable future.
Unfortunately, everything that has happened over the past 7 days has made the Russians more paranoid than ever. In fact, a top Russian general says that Russia should mobilize a million more troops because World War III has begun…
One of Vladimir Putin's generals has declared World War 3 is already underway, citing rising global tensions following Israel's recent attack on Iran.
Major General Apti Alaudinov, a prominent figure in Russia's military leadership, urged the Kremlin to carry out mass mobilisation of up to one million fresh troops following the attack, which he said has "already taken on a new turn and a new momentum." Alaudinov, 51, currently serves as the deputy chief of the Russian Armed Forces main military-political directorate, in charge of indoctrination and propaganda in the military machine, as well as commander of Akhmat special forces, based in his native Chechnya.
"We need to declare mobilisation," he posted on Telegram. "We need to prepare at least half a million people in advance. But realistically one million people."
Things are tense now, but there is one thing that would definitely take things to an entirely new level.
If Ayatollah Ali Khamenei were to be killed, the Russians and the Chinese would both be extremely angry.
But after the Iranians hit one of Israel's most important hospitals with a ballistic missile, Israel's leaders were hungry for revenge…
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said the military had been instructed to intensify strikes on strategic-related targets in Tehran to eliminate the threat to Israel and destabilise what he called the "Ayatollah regime."
He called Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei "the modern Hitler" and said "this man should not continue to exist."
Netanyahu has said Israel's military attacks could result in the toppling of Iran's leaders, and Israel would do whatever is necessary to remove the "existential threat" posed by Tehran.
If he is still alive, Khamenei is definitely on borrowed time.
And there are many Iranians that are living outside of Iran that can't wait to see Khamenei's regime come to an end.
Surprisingly, this even includes his own nephew…
Mahmoud Moradkhani, the exiled nephew of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said in an interview on Wednesday from his home in northern France that while he is no supporter of the war, he believes the collapse of the Islamic Republic is the only path to real peace.
"Anything that makes this regime disappear is necessary," Moradkhani said. "Now that we are at this stage, it has to be done."
Moradkhani, who fled Iran in 1986 and has remained a vocal critic of his uncle's authoritarian rule, added that the military confrontation with Israel is regrettable — but inevitable under a regime unwilling to bend or reform, reports Reuters.
For so many years, I have been talking about Iran, Russia and China.
Now the "final showdown" with Iran has begun, we are deeply involved in a proxy war against Russia in Ukraine, and our relations with China are going downhill really fast.
But the vast majority of the population still cannot see what is happening.
We are literally sleepwalking into the kinetic phase of World War III, and by the time most people wake up it will be too late."