The Substack article by Michael Snyder (published April 6, 2026) is titled "A Shortage of Nearly Everything" is Coming if The War Does Not End Soon. It warns that the ongoing US-Israel conflict with Iran — now about one month in, with the Strait of Hormuz heavily disrupted or effectively closed, and only about to be temporarily opened under the present cease fire — is rapidly turning an oil crisis into a broad "everything shortage" affecting plastics, fuel, food packaging, medicine, consumer goods, and more.
Core thesis and key claims
Snyder argues that people are underestimating the war's economic fallout. He quotes a CNN report (April 4, 2026) almost verbatim: "One month into the war in Iran, a growing shortage of crude oil is threatening to morph into something worse: a shortage of nearly everything." Disruptions to petroleum and its derivatives (used in plastics, fertilizers, chemicals, and transport) will cascade quickly because modern supply chains rely heavily on cheap, abundant oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz (which handles ~20% of global oil and significant LNG).
He highlights panic-buying in South Korea (trash bags) and specific issues in Asia:
Taiwan: Plastic shortages hitting rice farmers (vacuum-sealed bags) and manufacturers.
Japan: Shortages of plastic medical tubes for haemodialysis.
Malaysia: Glove makers threatened by lack of petroleum byproducts.
Broader ripple: Plastic caps, crates, snack bags, adhesives for shoes/furniture, lubricants, paints, solvents — affecting beer, noodles, chips, toys, cosmetics, and more.
Fuel impacts:
US gasoline up ~86¢ to $4.11/gallon nationally; diesel up $1.45 to $5.61/gallon (as high as $7.67 in California).
Jet fuel nearly doubled, causing flight cancellations in Asia, with Europe (e.g., Lufthansa, Scandinavian Airlines) preparing cuts.
Economist Mark Zandi (Moody's) is cited saying we won't return to pre-war prices "for the foreseeable future" due to destroyed infrastructure. Snyder predicts things will look far worse in 3–4 months if the war drags on, calling it potentially the greatest economic challenge in our lifetimes.
Tone is urgent and alarmist, with biblical undertones at the end, but the piece largely compiles mainstream reporting rather than original data.
How real is this "everything shortage" right now (April 10, 2026)?
The core driver — Strait of Hormuz disruptions from the Iran conflict — is factual and significant. The closure/blockade has caused one of the largest oil supply shocks in history, with millions of barrels per day offline and ripple effects on petrochemicals and shipping.
Real-world effects already visible or projected:
Fuel and transport — Gasoline/petrol and diesel prices have risen sharply in the US and globally. Diesel is critical for trucking, farming, and shipping, so higher costs feed into everything. Jet fuel spikes are hitting air travel.
Plastics and derivatives — Petroleum is the feedstock for countless plastics and chemicals. Shortages or price spikes in Asia (as Snyder notes) are real and can spread to consumer packaging, medical supplies (gloves, tubes), and goods. Reports confirm this spillover into everyday items.
Fertilizer and food — Disruptions to natural gas and Gulf fertilizer exports (urea, ammonia) are pushing prices higher at a bad time (Northern Hemisphere spring planting). This risks lower crop yields later in 2026 and higher grocery prices. The World Food Programme warns of delays/cost increases for humanitarian food aid and projects up to 45 million more people pushed into acute hunger globally if the conflict persists. US food-at-home prices were already forecast to rise ~3.1% in 2026 pre-escalation; this adds pressure.
Pharmaceuticals — Many generic drugs and active ingredients rely on supply chains routed through or dependent on Gulf petrochemicals/shipping. Shortages or higher costs for antibiotics, diabetes meds, blood pressure drugs, etc., could emerge in weeks to months, especially with just-in-time inventory.
Other — Broader supply chain delays, higher logistics costs, and potential port/shipping congestion.
However, it's not yet empty shelves in most places, yet. Many effects are price increases and emerging bottlenecks rather than total unavailability. Pre-war inventories, alternative routes (longer and costlier), and some increased production elsewhere provide buffers. The situation is fast-moving and depends heavily on whether the Hormuz route reopens soon, the scale of infrastructure damage, and any US military actions (as discussed in recent Trump statements).
This isn't entirely new — supply chains have been fragile since COVID, with prior "everything shortage" talk in 2021–2022. The current Iran-related shock is a major accelerator, layered on existing pressures (e.g., some ongoing port/labor issues, tight beef/herd supplies, etc.).
Bottom line
Snyder's piece is a fair (if dramatically framed) synthesis of legitimate concerns backed by recent CNN, Fox, Business Insider, and economist commentary. A prolonged disruption to Middle East energy and petrochemical flows would cause widespread shortages and inflation in plastics-derived goods, fuel-dependent transport, fertilizers/food, and medicines. We're seeing the early stages now, particularly in fuel prices and Asian manufacturing.
In the US (including Melbourne-adjacent global ripples), expect:
Higher prices at the pump and grocery store.
Potential spot shortages or delays in certain packaged goods, medical disposables, or imports.
Worse impacts on import-heavy or low-margin items.
If the conflict de-escalates quickly (e.g., via diplomacy or decisive action reopening shipping), some pressure could ease. If it drags on or escalates (destroying more infrastructure), the "nearly everything" scenario becomes more likely over the coming months.
Preparation steps that make sense regardless: Build a reasonable pantry buffer (non-perishables, water, meds), watch fuel costs, and avoid non-essential big-ticket travel if jet fuel issues worsen. This is a classic supply shock — painful but not apocalyptic if resolved reasonably soon. But, will it?
https://michaeltsnyder.substack.com/p/a-shortage-of-nearly-everything-is