Professor David Betz, a leading expert on war at King's College London, has issued a stark warning: many European countries are teetering on the edge of civil war, with some already past the point of no return. His analysis, grounded in historical patterns, statistical trends, and current socio-political realities, paints a grim picture of a continent spiralling toward violent decline. This blog piece defends Betz's position, arguing that his assessment is not alarmist but a sobering reflection of Europe's converging crises, social instability, economic decline, and elite failure, supported by historical precedents and observable evidence, all discussed at this blog before.
Betz's warning rests on a well-established historical framework: societies marked by social instability, economic decline, and elite incompetence often descend into violence. History provides ample evidence. The fall of the Roman Empire was preceded by economic stagnation, social fragmentation, and governance failures. The French Revolution erupted from economic hardship, class resentment, and an out-of-touch aristocracy. More recently, the Yugoslav Wars of the 1990s demonstrated how ethnic tensions, economic collapse, and weak leadership can fracture even modern societies. Betz's identification of these same conditions, dire social instability, economic decline, and "elite pusillanimity," in countries like the UK, France, and Sweden aligns with these precedents. His argument is not speculative but rooted in patterns that have repeatedly led to conflict.
Betz highlights the destabilising effect of demographic shifts, particularly in moderately homogenous societies where majority groups perceive their status as threatened. In the UK, for instance, studies project that white Britons could become a minority within decades due to immigration and differing birth rates. This shift, whether desired or not, creates friction when cultural identity and national cohesion are perceived as under siege. Betz's point is not that diversity itself is inherently destabilising but that rapid, unmanaged demographic change in the absence of integration fuels resentment and alienation. Evidence supports this: a 2023 YouGov poll found that 63% of Britons believe immigration has strained public services, while similar sentiments in France have fuelled the rise of nationalist movements like National Rally. These tensions, left unaddressed, create fertile ground for conflict, as Betz predicts.
Economic stagnation amplifies social unrest, and Europe's economic outlook is increasingly bleak. The Eurozone's growth has lagged behind other developed economies, with Germany, its economic powerhouse, entering recession in 2023. In the UK, real wages have stagnated for over a decade, and public services are stretched thin. Sweden, once a model of prosperity, faces rising unemployment and inequality, particularly in immigrant-heavy areas. Betz's argument that economic decline is a precursor to violence is supported by historical examples like the Great Depression, which fuelled political extremism across Europe. When people feel they have little to lose, they are more likely to turn to radical solutions, including violence.
Betz's critique of "elite pusillanimity" strikes at the heart of Europe's crisis. Political and cultural elites have failed to address or even acknowledge the concerns of ordinary citizens, from immigration to economic hardship. This disconnect has eroded trust in institutions. In France, the Yellow Vest protests exposed deep anger at a government perceived as aloof and self-serving. In the UK, Brexit was a rebellion against a cosmopolitan elite seen as prioritising global interests over national ones. Betz's assertion that no credible political figure or solution exists to bridge this divide is evident in the declining approval ratings of leaders across Europe, Macron's approval hovers around 30%, while trust in the UK's Labour government has plummeted since its 2024 election. When elites fail to offer solutions, people turn to extra-legal means, as Betz warns.
Betz's most chilling claim is that Europe is "past the point at which normal politics is able to solve the problem." This is not hyperbole but a recognition of polarised realities. In polarised societies, compromise becomes impossible; every policy risks inflaming one group while failing to satisfy another. For example, tightening immigration controls may appease native populations but alienate minorities and liberal elites, while open-border policies fuel populist backlash. This Catch-22, as Betz notes, makes violence almost inevitable. The 2024 riots in the UK over immigration policies and the 2023 unrest in France following police shootings illustrate how quickly tensions can escalate. Betz's point is that these are not isolated incidents but symptoms of a deeper, intractable divide.
Betz's prediction of violence is not a call for despair but a realistic assessment of human behavior under pressure. Social science supports this: studies like those by political scientist Barbara Walter show that civil wars often emerge in democracies with factionalism and declining trust in institutions, precisely the conditions Betz describes. The UK's 2024 riots, France's recurring protests, and Sweden's rising gang violence are early warning signs. Betz's estimate of tens of thousands of deaths in a potential UK civil war reflects the scale of modern conflicts in diverse, urbanised societies. His advice to avoid cities underscores the localized nature of such violence, as seen in urban unrest from Belfast in the 1970s to Paris in 2005.
Critics might argue that Betz overstates the risk, pointing to Europe's strong institutions and history of resilience. They may claim that democratic mechanisms, economic recovery, or integration policies could avert disaster. However, these arguments underestimate the depth of current divisions. Institutions, while robust, are only as strong as public trust, which is at historic lows. Economic recovery is uncertain amid global challenges like energy crises and inflation. Integration policies have often failed to bridge cultural divides, as seen in Sweden's struggles with parallel communities. Betz's view accounts for these realities, recognizing that hope alone cannot reverse structural trends.
Professor Betz's warning of Europe's violent decline is a courageous and evidence-based assessment of a continent at a crossroads. His analysis draws on historical patterns, current data, and the undeniable reality of social, economic, and political decay. While his conclusions are grim, they are not fatalistic; they urge preparation and mitigation rather than denial. Europe's elites, as Betz notes, must face the consequences of their failures. Whether through civil conflict or radical societal shifts, chaos is coming.
"One of the globe's leading experts on war has warned that many European countries are on the verge of civil war and may already be past the point of no return.
David Betz, Professor of War in the Modern World at King's College London, says his research shows is a statistically significant chance of a civil war breaking out within five years in a major European country, with a distinct possibility that the conflict could spill over to neighbouring Nations.
Speaking to documentarian Andrew Gold, Betz further noted that it is likely too late to prevent things getting "very much worse" in Europe, and that governments may only be able to better prepare for the inevitable.
"I would probably avoid big cities. I would suggest you reduce your exposure to big cities if you are able," Betz chillingly urged.
He added, "there isn't anything they can do, it's baked in. We're already past the tipping point, is my estimation… we are past the point at which there is a political offramp. We are past the point at which normal politics is able to solve the problem."
Betz emphasised that "almost every plausible way forward from here involves some kind of violence in my view."
"Anything the government tries to do at this point… you can solve one kind of problem, but it will aggravate another kind of problem in doing so, and you get back to violence," the professor continued.
"The question really is about mitigating the costs, to my mind, not about preventing the outcome, I'm sorry to say… I have not heard a credible political way forward and I don't see a single political figure who is credible in the role of national saviour, or even inclined to do so," he added.
"The bottom line is I don't think there is now a political solution to this which takes the form of everything just working out OK after some period of difficulty," Betz grimly concludes, noting "Things are bad now, but they are going to get very much worse."
"Hopefully after they will get better, but you will have to go through the period of very much worse before you get there," he predicted.
It's a downward spiral, essentially.
"I understand what I say is extremely unpleasant", Betz said, further remarking: "I just want to say dear elites, the consequences of your actions have arrived."
Betz notes that the United Kingdom, France, and Sweden all already have "dire social instability", "economic decline", and "elite pusillanimity", all historically precursors to conflict.
The academic estimates that a civil war in the UK, which now has a population of 70 million, could mean tens of thousands of deaths.
"The most unstable are moderately homogenous societies", Betz has previously observed, noting that legacy majority groups feel their status being threatened or about to be completely replaced and they are more likely to fight to retain dominance.
While research has indicated that the UK is on course to become a minority white country within decades, Betz predicts that it won't actually happen because enough native Britons may move to reverse the trend.
"You could make such an argument, but that's, I think, making a lot of assumptions about people's likely response to things. I don't think that society is so inert", Betz said, adding "I just don't think the British people want to be displaced from their own country… I think people are going to reject that. And they are already, people are already perceiving an urgency to act to prevent the loss of something they feel very strongly about still."
Betz further asserted that "the existence of this idea [of England]… is very seriously in peril… how [people] react against that is the question. There's a grave potential for them to react in ways that take us right off the scale. I hope that doesn't occur, but we are at a very perilous moment."