The mainstream media has been singing the same song for months: MAGA is fracturing, collapsing, or already dead. Outlets from the New York Times to Politico, and even some voices on the right, have repeatedly declared the movement finished, especially amid arguments over foreign policy, the Iran situation, and internal Republican tensions.
But the results from recent Republican primaries tell a different story.
In the latest round (as of early May 2026), Trump-endorsed candidates performed strongly. Dozens of MAGA-aligned Republicans won their races, often beating more establishment or "RINO" opponents. Strong showings in Indiana, Michigan, Texas, North Carolina, and especially Ohio (where Vivek Ramaswamy reportedly dominated) showed that the populist wing still carries real weight inside the GOP base.
This matches the argument Roger Kimball made in his recent Spectator piece: the constant predictions of MAGA's death have been premature. Trump continues to be a powerful symbol for a large chunk of Republican voters who believe the party betrayed them for decades on trade, borders, culture, and elite accountability. The base isn't blindly loyal to one man, it's punishing politicians who ignore its core priorities.
That said, a sober look requires acknowledging the problems too. There is visible strain. Some prominent MAGA voices (Tucker Carlson, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Candace Owens, and others) have clashed publicly with Trump, particularly over Iran and what they see as departures from "America First." Polls show softening support among non-hardcore voters worried about inflation, energy prices, and foreign entanglements. And while the Democrats may be in structural decline, that doesn't automatically hand MAGA permanent dominance. The 2026 midterms will be a real test of whether the movement can turn cultural energy into consistent governing success.
These tensions are real. Any movement built heavily around one charismatic leader eventually faces questions of succession and internal disagreement. The Iran debate has highlighted genuine divides between those who want strict restraint abroad and those willing to project more strength.
At its core, MAGA was never a cult. It was a broad backlash against decades of institutional failure: open borders, deindustrialisation, cultural overreach, endless wars, and suffocating regulation. That underlying discontent hasn't disappeared. Economic pressure, cultural battles, and distrust of legacy institutions continue to feed it.
Still, governing is always harder than campaigning. Delivering real results on inflation, border security, and government efficiency will matter far more than any single primary night. If those results don't come, even a loyal base can grow impatient.
MAGA is not finished. But it is maturing. The pure outsider insurgency phase is giving way to the much harder work of coalition-building and actual governance. History is full of populist movements that faded once they became the establishment without delivering for their voters.
The premature obituaries should be ignored. MAGA still commands real strength and voter loyalty that establishment Republicans dismiss at their own peril.
https://spectator.com/article/maga-isnt-finished-its-just-getting-started/