As of 25 February 2026, the Middle East is once again on a knife-edge. President Donald Trump has signalled he will decide within days — possibly as soon as this weekend — whether to launch U.S. military strikes on Iran to force a new nuclear deal. Israeli officials are preparing for multi-front escalation. And in the middle of it all, Michael Snyder has published a sobering Substack essay titled "How Iran Plans to Strike Back is the Part of the Equation that People Should be Focusing On." It is well worth discussing.

Snyder, a long-time watcher of global risk, argues that most commentary fixates on what the U.S. and Israel might do to Iran. Far too little attention, he says, is being paid to how the Islamic Republic intends to hit back — and the horrifying tools it now appears ready to use.

Iran's Declared Retaliation Strategy

According to Snyder (drawing on Iranian statements, intelligence leaks reported by Iran International and the Wall Street Journal, and public threats), Tehran's plan includes:

Carrier-killer operations: Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has openly boasted that America's carriers can be sent "to the bottom of the sea." The primary targets are the USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald R. Ford, currently in the region. Iran plans to swarm them with hundreds of drones combined with advanced Chinese-supplied anti-ship ballistic and cruise missiles.

Hypersonic missile barrages on Israeli cities: New ballistic missiles such as the Khorramshahr-4 (reportedly reaching Mach 16 outside the atmosphere and Mach 8 inside) with 1,500 kg warheads. These are explicitly designed to overwhelm Israeli defences.

Unconventional weapons: Multiple sources now confirm Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is developing chemical and biological warheads for its long-range missiles. Iranian leaders have reportedly concluded that in an "existential threat" scenario, the use of such weapons is justifiable. Snyder also notes recent use of chemical agents against domestic protesters and the possibility of "dirty bombs."

Regional proxy activation: While Snyder focuses on direct Iranian capabilities, the broader context (confirmed by Israeli and Lebanese reporting today) shows Tehran pressuring Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iraqi militias to join the fight — exactly the multi-front nightmare Israel fears.

Iran has already told the United Nations it will treat all U.S. and allied bases, facilities, and assets in the region as legitimate targets the moment missiles start flying.

Why This Matters to Australia

Most Australians probably feel the Middle East is a long way away. In strategic terms, however, we are far more exposed than many realise.

1.Energy Shock and Cost-of-Living Pain: Roughly one-fifth of the world's oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has repeatedly threatened to mine or block the strait in a major war. Even a temporary disruption would send global oil prices skyrocketing — potentially to $150–$200 a barrel in the first weeks. Australia imports almost all its crude and refined fuel. Every cent per litre at the bowser, every spike in aviation fuel, and every increase in manufacturing and freight costs, king hits Australian households already battling inflation.

2.Direct Strategic Exposure as a U.S. Ally: Australia is a core member of the Five Eyes intelligence alliance and AUKUS. We have publicly backed Israel and the U.S. position on Iran's nuclear program. In a full-scale regional war, Iranian proxies or cyber units have previously targeted Western interests worldwide. Australian diplomatic posts, businesses, or even tourists in the Gulf could become collateral. More seriously, Australian Defence Force personnel embedded with U.S. forces or operating in the region (as we have done before) could find themselves in harm's way.

3.Global Shipping and Supply Chains: Australia's export economy (iron ore, coal, LNG, agriculture) relies on open sea lanes. A wider conflict would spike insurance premiums, reroute vessels, and delay everything from supermarket shelves to building materials. The 2021 Suez blockage cost the world billions; a Hormuz crisis would be orders of magnitude worse.

4.Domestic Security and Community Tensions: Australia has a significant Iranian-Australian community, including both regime opponents and, according to ASIO, a small but active number of individuals of security concern. Escalation abroad has historically led to increased monitoring, possible protests, and in extreme cases, threats of terrorism or espionage on Australian soil.

5.Longer-Term Geopolitical Ripple Effects: A U.S.–Iran war that goes badly could accelerate China's push to reshape global energy and security arrangements — something that directly affects Australia's primary trading partner and our strategic position in the Indo-Pacific.

The Bottom Line for Aussies

Michael Snyder is not a Pentagon insider, but his essay collates open-source reporting that aligns closely with what Israeli, U.S., and independent analysts are saying right now. The Iranian regime, weakened by last year's "12-Day War," domestic massacres of protesters, and crushing sanctions, has reached the conclusion that its survival is at stake. Regimes in that mindset do not respond with limited, symbolic strikes — they reach for whatever they believe will inflict maximum pain.

For Australia, this is not abstract foreign policy. It is a potential multi-billion-dollar hit to our economy, higher fuel and grocery prices, and a heightened risk environment for our closest allies and our own people abroad.

We cannot control what happens in the Persian Gulf over the next days. But we can and should be paying attention — because when the missiles start flying, the fallout will not stop at the Strait of Hormuz. It will wash up on Australian shores in the form of higher prices, disrupted trade, and strategic uncertainty. If not, domestic terrorism, although more unlikely.

The part of the equation Australians should be focusing on, just like Michael Snyder urges, is exactly how Iran plans to strike back — and how prepared we are for the consequences. At a minimum, keep your car's fuel tank topped up, and a few tins of baked beans!

https://michaeltsnyder.substack.com/p/how-iran-plans-to-strike-back-is