On April 28, 2025, Pakistan's Defence Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif dropped a bombshell: a military incursion by India is "imminent" following a deadly terrorist attack in Kashmir that killed 26 tourists. The attack, which targeted mostly Hindu visitors in Pahalgam on April 22, has reignited the smouldering feud between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan, pushing the subcontinent to the brink. With both nations trading accusations, deploying forces, and rattling nuclear sabres, the world watches anxiously. What's driving this crisis, what could happen if war breaks out, and why are conspiracy theories flooding survivalist YouTube and X?
Kashmir, a Himalayan region claimed by both India and Pakistan since their 1947 partition, is no stranger to violence. The two nations have fought three wars—two over Kashmir—and countless skirmishes along the Line of Control (LoC), the de facto border splitting the region. The April 22 attack, claimed by the obscure Kashmir Resistance group, was the deadliest in India since the 2008 Mumbai attacks, shattering claims of "normalcy" touted by India's government since revoking Kashmir's autonomy in 2019. India blames Pakistan for backing the militants, alleging two suspects were Pakistani, while Islamabad denies involvement and calls for a neutral probe.
Tensions have since skyrocketed. India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowed to hunt the attackers "to the ends of the earth," while Pakistan's military reports five nights of cross-border fire and a downed Indian drone. Pakistan's defence minister claims India's rhetoric signals an imminent strike, prompting troop reinforcements and "strategic decisions." India has arrested over 1,500 Kashmiris, demolished suspected militant homes, suspended a water-sharing treaty, and test-fired long-range missiles. Pakistan, in turn, has deployed artillery and closed airspace to Indian airlines.
What makes this standoff chilling is the nuclear arsenals both nations wield. India, with about 160 warheads, and Pakistan, with roughly 170, became nuclear powers in 1998, and both have advanced delivery systems. Pakistan's Railway Minister Hanif Abbasi escalated fears, declaring their 130+ missiles are "not for display" and aimed solely at India, especially if India halts Pakistan's water supply via the Indus Waters Treaty. Pakistan's defence minister added they'd use nuclear weapons only if their "existence" is threatened, but such rhetoric raises the spectre of catastrophe.
A full-scale war could devastate Kashmir's 15 million people and beyond. The 1999 Kargil War, a limited conflict, nearly went nuclear, but mutual deterrence pulled both sides back. Today, experts warn that even a "managed hostility" could spiral, especially with India's Cold Start doctrine—designed for rapid, punitive strikes without triggering nuclear retaliation—clashing with Pakistan's tactical nuclear weapons strategy. A miscalculation risks millions of lives, economic collapse, and environmental fallout, with the region's "three-way nuclear junction" (India, Pakistan, China) complicating matters.
If India launches a strike, several scenarios could unfold:
Limited Retaliation: India might opt for surgical strikes, like those in 2016 and 2019, targeting militant camps in Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Pakistan could respond with tit-for-tat skirmishes along the LoC, keeping the conflict contained but volatile.
Escalation to Conventional War: A larger Indian incursion could prompt Pakistan to mobilise its full military, leading to intense border clashes. Both sides' nuclear doctrines—India's no-first-use versus Pakistan's lower threshold—heighten the risk of missteps.
Nuclear Nightmare: The worst-case scenario is a nuclear exchange, potentially killing millions and rendering parts of the subcontinent uninhabitable. The global fallout—economic disruption, refugee crises, and environmental damage—would be catastrophic.
Geopolitically, the conflict wouldn't stay bilateral. China, Pakistan's ally, has called for restraint but backs an independent probe, while the U.S., closer to India, urges a "responsible solution." Regional rivalries (India vs. China) and alliances (U.S.-India, China-Pakistan) could draw in major powers, complicating de-escalation. Gulf states, per Asif, are mediating, but the U.S. has so far stayed aloof, with President Trump suggesting both nations sort it out themselves.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/04/pakistan-defense-chief-warns-war-india-imminent-threatens/
"Pakistan's defence minister said on Monday that a military incursion by neighbouring India is "imminent" following a deadly militant attack on tourists in Kashmir last week, as tensions rise between the two nuclear-armed nations.
The attack killed 26 people and triggered outrage in Hindu-majority India, along with calls for action against Muslim-majority Pakistan.
India accuses Pakistan of backing militancy in Kashmir, a disputed region both claim the countries have fought two wars over.
"We have reinforced our forces because it is something which is imminent now. So in that situation some strategic decisions have to be taken, so those decisions have been taken," Defence Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif said in an interview with Reuters.
Asif said India's rhetoric was ramping up and that Pakistan's military had briefed the government on the possibility of an Indian attack.
He did not go into further details on his reasons for thinking an incursion was imminent.
India has said it has arrested two suspected militants were Pakistani, while Islamabad has denied any role and called for an external investigation.
Van Hollen denied access to Abrego, CECOT; RFK Jr. sounds alarm over autism
Today on Rising, Robby delivers a monologue on former President Barack Obama's policies that he thinks paved the way for President Trump's crackdown on universities. A newly released affidavit shows the alleged arsonist targeted Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) over his views on the war in Gaza. El Salvador denies Sen. Chris Van Hollen's (D-Md.) request to visit mistakenly-deported Kilmar Abrego Garcia. Robby and Niall discuss a piece from The Wall Street Journal that alleges that billionaire Elon Musk is attempting to impregnate X influencers and build a legion of his children. Visiting fellow at the Heritage Foundation and Co-founder of Moms For Liberty, Tiffany Justice discusses DOJ's lawsuit against Maine over defying President Trump's ban of transgender athletes from women's sports. President Trump called for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to be 'terminated.' Michigan gubernatorial candidate Jocelyn Benson discusses her bid to fill outgoing Gov. Gretchen Whitmer's (D) seat. HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr's comments on autism receive backlash. All this and more. #Rising Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Biz Help For You
What Recent Changes Mean for the IRS Budget Cuts, Layoffs & Taxpayer Impact
Send us a textHow do IRS layoffs, budget cuts, and policy shifts affect YOU this tax season? Find out what's fact vs. fiction in this timely update. #IRS2025 #TaxSeason #TaxpayerHelp #CandyMesser #IRSUpdates #BizHelp4U #FinancialLiteracy #SmallBusinessFinance Support the showResources: https://affordablebookkeepingandpayroll.com/resource-opt-in Become a supported of the show: https://www.buzzsprout.com/1522381/support
Morning Report
Morning Report — Trump vs. the courts
President Trump is clashing with the courts on multiple fronts as his second-term agenda takes shape, setting up high-stakes legal battles that will test the administration's power as it stretches against the bounds of the law. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Rising
Trump Admin blasts media over Abrego coverage; Mangione indicted on federal charges
Today on Rising, Niall Stanage delivers a monologue on Sen. Van Hollen (D-Md.) meeting Kilmar Abrego Garcia in El Salvador. Luigi Mangione indicted on federal charges for killing UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson. Democratic strategist James Carville slams Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and DNC Vice Chair David Hogg. Senior editor at Reason Elizabeth Nolan Brown explains whether a pop song can violate children's rights. Niall and Amber discuss the apparently growing rift between factions of the Trump administration and Republican Party. FCC Chair Brandon Carr blasts news outlets including MSNBC. Founder and editor in chief of The Lever David Sirota explains why President Trump's trade war is a political trap for Democrats. A new Gallup poll that shows that young Americans are becoming "less" religious. All this and more. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Asif, who is a member Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz party that has historically pursued peace talks with India, added that they would only use their nuclear weapons arsenal "there is a direct threat to our existence."
The minister added that Islamabad had approached its allies in order ot brief them on the situation.
"Some of our friends in the Arabian Gulf have talked to both sides," Asif said, without naming the countries.
China said on Monday it hoped for restraint and welcomed all measures to cool down the situation. Asif said the United States was thus far "staying away" from intervening in the matter.
Meanwhile, President Trump said last week India and Pakistan would figure out relations between themselves, but the State Department later said Washington was in touch with both sides, urging them to work towards a "responsible solution."
India and Pakistan have been bitter rivals since their partition in 1947, fighting three wars and numerous skirmishes, mainly over Kashmir.
Both nations became nuclear powers in 1998 and today maintain sizable arsenals.
India is estimated to have around 160 nuclear warheads, while Pakistan holds roughly 170, with both sides developing increasingly advanced delivery systems,
making any military escalation between them especially dangerous."