New Office for National Statistics (ONS) data for 2025 shows that 40.2% of live births in England and Wales, more than 235,000 out of 585,396 total births, involved at least one parent born outside the UK. This marks a record high, up from 39.5% the previous year and 30.1% in 2008.
At the same time, the overall total fertility rate (TFR) in England and Wales fell to a provisional record low of 1.39 children per woman. UK-born women have even lower fertility, while foreign-born mothers, who are overrepresented in childbearing ages, drive a significant share of births. Top countries of origin for foreign-born mothers include India (27,601 births), Pakistan, Nigeria, Romania, Bangladesh, and others.
Low native fertility is a long-term trend across much of Europe. The UK's overall TFR sits well below the 2.1 replacement level needed for a population to sustain itself without migration. Native British women tend toward later childbearing, economic pressures (housing, childcare costs), cultural shifts, and smaller family norms. Without immigration, the ONS projects natural population change (births minus deaths) turning negative from 2026 onward.
Migration fills the gap, and then some. Foreign-born women currently have a higher TFR, Total Fertility Rate (around 2.0 in recent data) than UK-born women (~1.5). Many arrive during peak reproductive years, and family formation among certain migrant communities sustains higher birth rates in the first and sometimes second generations. The result: migrant-origin births now account for a share far exceeding the foreign-born population percentage (~16-19% of the total UK population).
This pattern compounds over time. Second-generation children of migrants often retain somewhat elevated fertility compared to long-settled natives, while continued inflows add new cohorts.
Population growth: Almost entirely migration-driven. Recent ONS projections show the UK population rising to around 71 million by 2034, with net migration covering the entire increase amid more deaths than births.
Ethnic and cultural composition: White British births are at their lowest recorded share. Projections from various analysts (including academic models) suggest White British people could become a minority nationally sometime in the second half of the century under current trends, or sooner, with faster shifts in major cities like London (already majority non-White British in younger age groups).
Regional variation: London sees over 60% of births to foreign-born mothers. Other urban areas follow similar patterns.
These are not fringe estimates. They stem from official data on births by parental country of birth, census ethnicity figures, and standard cohort-component projection methods.
Governments of different parties have presided over this Great Replacement, with pressure on housing, infrastructure, welfare systems, social cohesion, and cultural continuity. Rapid change erodes the sense of shared identity and trust that underpins stable societies, a concern echoed in surveys across Europe.
Demographic momentum is powerful but not destiny. Fertility can respond to policy (family support, housing affordability, cultural incentives), though reversals are historically difficult. Migration policy is more adjustable: numbers, selection criteria, and integration requirements can be tightened, as seen in recent UK attempts to reduce net figures.
The 40% figure is a milestone, not an endpoint. It reflects real trends in low native birth rates and high immigration. Societies that ignore demographic realities risk sleepwalking into unintended futures. Open debate on numbers, integration, and long-term identity is essential.
https://dailysceptic.org/2026/05/27/share-of-babies-born-to-migrant-parents-hits-record-40/